The news changes so fast about the spread of the Corona Virus or Covid 19 that one needs to put a date on each mention of it. What was unknown a week ago is now old news. Two weeks ago I noted that Tokyo had cancelled an upcoming marathon with 40,000 entries out of fear the event would be a feeder to the virus. They had maintained their half marathon for elite runners however. At the same time a similarly large marathon in South Korea was still on and at the time there were only 30 reported cases in that country. Now the South Koreans have cancelled their marathon and the virus deaths in that country are steadily climbing.
So how will this play out by the late summer when the Tokyo Olympics are scheduled to begin? We are told that warm weather keeps the virus from spreading. It survives better in colder climates. Tokyo had already decided to move the Olympic marathon to Sapporo where it would not be so hot and uncomfortable for the marathon runners, but that strategy may be contrary to what is now known about the virus.
We also know that the most threatened are the old and chronically unhealthy in our population. This certainly does not fit the age range and health of the athletes of the Games. They are the young and healthy. So why not just say, "Old folks, stay home, watch the Games on your TV's, and be sure to wash your hands."
One of the problems with that response is that a lot of people over 50 are planning to be sitting in the stands and spending a lot of money in the Japanese economy. This would all go away if people took it upon themselves to play it safe, or if Japan restricts travel into and out of the country. Even if I had the money to go, I wouldn't want to be stepping over the bodies of seniors to get to my seat in the stadium. Hopefully this will not be the case, but no one at this time can say for sure what the situation will be.
If you want to talk money, ask the tv suits what their position is.
The Japanese are also hedging their bets as recently as yesterday by saying that they are only obligated to host the Olympics at any time in the year 2020. The Games could theoretically be postponed until December if by then the virus runs its course. Who can say? Personally I am not going to rely on any world, national or municipal health authority to tell me when it will be safe to travel and mix with other members of my species, especially six months in advance.
I looked up a bit of history about the events in 1918 when the Spanish Influenza ran through the world. It was mentioned that the flu struck in two waves. The first was in the Spring, and it did not pack the punch in terms of fatalities like the second wave did later that year. Stories of people going to work in the morning feeling healthy and not making it home that night because they were stricken and died were common. I know that at least two of my family members died of the flu. One, an infant less than two years of age, and the other a healthy American soldier who died on the boat on his way to Europe. More American soldiers died of influenza than from the bullets and artillery of the Germans. The Spanish flu knew no age boundaries as the Corona virus seems to be limited to the old, or so we are told by our public health officers.
The other piece to be concerned about is whether we are getting accurate information from our public health people because of the political implications in an election year. Is the truth being withheld or manipulated or at least expressed in a way as to maintain the political status quo, or are we getting rliable and accurate information? My personal feeling is it's a little of both and also even the most astute scientists and epidemiologists do not yet have all the answers. One thing we do know is that it takes a long time to develop a vaccine against this new type of flu, and that by the time one is developed, a lot of people will probably die. Just nature's way of maintaining balance.
The Games have been cancelled in the past only because of the two world wars (1918, 1940, and 1944). This time the reason could be something even more deadly. George Brose
This came in from my good friend and former teammate Stephen Morelock, who knows a lot more about commerce and bidness than do I.
Good thoughts. I suspect the Olympics will be postponed, given the current trajectory of Covid-19.
I'm not sure the weather is quite the factor you opine. This virus has come out due to global warming.
And you are almost certainly right that TV will make the final call..
Interestingly, if everyone stays home and watches on TV, but the games go on, Japan will suffer economically, but TV may be able to raise their commercial rates due to higher viewership. Other networks may be able to work their way into the coverage.
Loved your piece on the Mills race.
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