V 10 N. 18 Our Predictions on Holding the 2020 Olympic Games

Literally every world organization seems to be taking moves to adapt to the current world health
crisis, with a few exceptions.  Major waffelers are the International Olympic Committee and the Japan/Tokyo Olympic organization.  There may be other organizations as well, but these two seem to be the biggest footdraggers in current news from around the world.  Perhaps the IOC and the Tokyo Olympic Organization consider themselves bigger than all the governments of the world that are taking very serious steps to halt gatherings  ranging from 10 to 100 people depending where you are looking.  Perhaps the IOC is basing their stance on the fact that Wuhan, China has not seen any new cases erupt in the last few days.  Maybe the IOC is hoping that every nation is going to take the same drastic steps to lockdown a population center and allow Covid-19 to run its course. 

However when looking at past history of world pandemics, it must be remembered that the 1918 Pandemic hit in two waves.  The first wave that hit in the early part of the year was mild by comparison to the second wave that came and killed millions around the globe.  We don't know anything yet about whether that characteristic will be a part of Covid-19's pedigree.

Also to be considered is the training of athletes in the next few months and selection of teams.  How will that be done and will it be fair to all?  Will we go to a 'selection committee' and not have an Olympic Trials?  How will athletes get preparatory competitions when all sports competitions seem to be cancelled in the US?  All we have to base judgements on are the indoor season.  Okay, there is a marathon team on the books, but that's about it.  Will there be underground competitions that are set up and held without announcing those to the public?   "Okay guys, there's going to be a meet May 16 on the Ukiah, CA high school track.  It will start at 2:00AM and finish at sunrise.  Do not wear athletic gear on the streets, as it may attract attention.  We don't expect the police to enforce any bans on gathering more than 50 people, because the local department is greatly understaffed due to the virus."   Results will be sent in to USATF for evaluation.   "There will be similar meetings around the country, Salina, Kansas,  Sheboygan, Wisconsin,  Paducah, Kentucky, and McKeeport, Pennsylvania.  "Again remember to be as low profile as possible.   Pole Vaulters disguise your poles and have them delivered to the track by UPS, or buy them from Amazon.  Wait, Amazon is shut down.  Use UPS."

All this sounds like science fiction.  Which it is, as I've just made this up.  But I'm reminded a bit of the book :"On the Beach", by Neville Shute.

What I think may well happen, is that individual countries will start abandoning the Olympics for this year.  It will catch on and others will follow until the IOC and the Tokyo organizers are faced with the possibility of a dual meet between North Korea and Russia.  Wait, Russia is only allowed to have twenty athletes not wearing the national uniform.  Oh, Hell, we'll make an exception.  Russia can bring a full team.  And there will be no drug testing.  We can't risk bringing all those technicians and urine and blood samples contaminating the premises.

Let's also consider travel to Japan.  Who in their right mind would want to go there this summer under current condtions?

In 1972 after the P.L.O. massacre of Israeli athletes, many thought the Games should have been cancelled.  Avery Brundage gave it a day off and went back to work.  But it must be remembered, that there were thousands of athletes already in place,  There were many thousands of tourists in Munich for the Games, and big time television sports organizations though in their infancy were still swinging some weight.  And Brundage may have gotten some serious bribes from the Germans like he did in 1936.  Today, those powerful organizations are most likely behind the stance of the IOC and Tokyo's positioning.  We may never know.  But if nations withdraw individually and the Games are cancelled,  we will be watching reruns of 'Battle of the Network Stars'  and the trash sport show "Superstars" of the 1970's.

Stop  the Presses:

The Latest:  from Sean Ingle of The Guardian, 

Sebastian Coe has admitted that “nobody is saying we will be going to the Games come what may” as the debate over whether the Tokyo Olympics should be staged this summer continues to intensify.


Read the Guardian article here